Consumer Energy Report is now Energy Trends Insider -- Read More »

Posts tagged “PBR”

By Robert Rapier on Sep 16, 2009 with no responses

Brazil Flexing Its Muscles

A couple of years ago I was thinking about the possible fates of various nations in a world in which depleting oil reserves begin to have a very strong impact on oil prices. I had visions of $100+ oil and eventually $5-10 gasoline, which would place a crushing burden on the U.S. economy. Of course higher prices will motivate people to conserve (and will contribute to recession), and then you may find yourself in a situation in which the supply/demand balance once again tips toward excess supply (as we found ourselves in as oil approached $150/bbl). Prices fall. The economy starts to recover. What happens then? Prices rise, putting the brakes on recovery. This is what I postulated in The… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jun 10, 2009 with no responses

Time to Switch to Natural Gas?

A couple of articles, both at Seeking Alpha, got me to thinking about whether it might be time to trade in my Petrobras (PBR) stock for something in the natural gas sector. From the first of the two articles: Natural Gas Should Get a Boost from China’s New Demand China has been developing natural gas vehicles for many years, recently the number of vehicles running on nat gas has risen dramatically. For example, the government of Xi’an in western China, a medium size with 8M population, has decided to mandate all city buses and taxis using natural gas. The government website reported 5000 buses and 20000 taxis was using nat gas in 2008, and is expected to grow in coming… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Mar 22, 2009 with no responses

Trying to Make Sense of Ethanol Tariffs

Note that in the following essay, I am not trying to come down either for or against ethanol tariffs, but rather to discuss what I see as the key issues surrounding them. U.S. energy policy is slanted to favor U.S. farmers and ethanol producers, and I am merely trying to explain the tariffs within that context. ——————- You are probably aware that the U.S. imposes a $0.54/gallon tariff on ethanol that we import from Brazil. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with President Obama last week and implored him – in the name of a better environmental policy – to remove the “absurd tariffs on ethanol.” In response President Obama said the situation is “not going to change… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Mar 8, 2009 with no responses

Fortune Says Oil Stocks are a Bargain

I certainly can’t disagree with this: Betting on big oil’s comeback The article first argues that oil prices are unlikely to stay low for too long: “Right now, the upsides in the oil sector far exceed the downside risks,” says Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. “I am absolutely convinced that oil prices will rise.” After last year’s $100 free-fall rocked expectations, that kind of confidence is surprising. But Gheit is not alone; a strong consensus is growing for a price rebound. While crude isn’t likely to rocket back to the sky-high levels of 2008, even bearish analysts admit that oil can’t stay below $50 for long. Those are of course my sentiments as well. I believe that… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Dec 23, 2008 with no responses

Loading Up on PBR

A little over a month ago, as a result of the dramatic fall in the market capitalizations of oil companies, I opened up a brokerage account with Ameritrade to take advantage of the fire sale. Besides my ConocoPhillips (COP) stock, most of my investments are diversified in various mutual funds – often diversified into things I don’t know too much about. As I have said many times before, I am a long-term investor. Short-term volatility doesn’t impact me much; my time horizon when I buy a stock is 5-10 years out. Therefore, I see an opportunity. Do I think oil prices will be hanging around $40 in 10 years? Absolutely not. I think the OPEC cuts will begin to bite,… Continue»