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Posts tagged “opis”

By Robert Rapier on Nov 22, 2007 with no responses

Why Oil Prices Defied Expectations

Happy Thanksgiving to all! It was a normal work day here in Scotland for me, which stinks. But I am now home, the turkey just came out of the oven, and soon I will be sitting down to watch the Dallas Cowboys on my Slingbox. What a great invention that thing is! A lot of people – including me – were very surprised that we didn’t break through the $100/bbl barrier on Wednesday. After all, analysts had expected a large crude build, and instead there was a large draw. Given that on Tuesday night WTI had traded as high as $99.29 – and as nervous as the markets have been – I thought $100 was a sure thing given the… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Nov 2, 2007 with no responses

Analysts – Correct 52% of the Time!

A sign the oil prices are headed down: OPEC fears may hike price Crude oil may rise next week on speculation that OPEC won’t increase production as fast as consumption grows this winter. Twenty-one of 35 analysts surveyed, or 60 per cent, said oil prices will rise through Nov. 9, the first bullish response since July 6. Is that a mistake? The first bullish response since July 6th? So they were bearish throughout a 30% rise in price, and now become bullish? That’s funny. But this may be even funnier: Respondents have predicted price drops in the previous 16 weeks. Prices have declined in five of those weeks. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 52 percent… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Oct 30, 2007 with no responses

OPIS on the Bull Rush

My daily OPIS summary weighed in on my side over the level of oil prices. I am beginning to think I may not be crazy at all. Today’s “excuse de jour” for the rally has been the reported shut-in of 600,000 b/d of crude oil by Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, due to inclement weather. In a climate where U.S. crude supplies are dangerously low, such a shut-in would likely spur some panic buying. Supplies are not dangerously low, however. In fact, stockpiles are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. And in that kind of a climate, news like the Pemex shut-in becomes justification for a… Continue»