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Posts tagged “oil production”

By Robert Rapier on Jun 11, 2008 with no responses

Energy Export Databrowser

Jonathan Callahan, a Ph.D. chemist who spent 12 years working for NOAA, has created a very useful databrowser for exploring the supply/demand situation in various countries around the world. Based on BP’s 2007 Statistical Review, it provides a quick and easy way to see the trends for whether countries are consuming or producing, importing or exporting crude oil and natural gas. The tool may be found at Energy Export Databrowser. How useful is this tool? It took me about 5 seconds to pull up the following graphic for crude oil trends in the U.S.: The databrowser contains over 80 countries. The strength of the tool is that it groups a lot of valuable information in one place, and makes it… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Apr 17, 2008 with no responses

Where Our Oil Imports Come From

Following the theme of the previous post on where we get our gasoline imports, below is the list of our Top 10 sources of oil imports for 2007. For 2007, our Top 10 importers of crude oil into the U.S. in million barrels were: 1. Canada 680.533 million barrels2. Saudi Arabia 530.2453. Mexico 514.484. Venezuela 419.8415. Nigeria 394.8566. Angola 181.2157. Iraq 177.0098. Algeria 161.7559. Ecuador 72.13810. Kuwait 64.306 Source: U.S. Crude Imports by Country of Origin If you compare to the list for gasoline imports, Canada is the only country common to both lists (although “OPEC Countries” in total came in at #10). Any surprises on that list? I am surprised to see Ecuador in the Top 10. I would… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Apr 11, 2008 with no responses

New Crude Plus Condensate Peak

Per the latest International Petroleum Monthly (Excel download), world crude plus condensate production for January was 74,466,000 million bpd. The previous record in May 2005 was 74,298,000 bpd. The number is subject to revision, but I have been firm since 2005 that I did not believe that peak would stand. My feeling remains that we could grow another 3-5 million bpd, but that we will not be able to grow any sort of cushion, hence Peak Lite and continued high prices. If I had to guess – and these are just guesses – I would say 50% probability of peak within 3 years, 70% probability within 5 years, and >90% probability within 10 years.

By Robert Rapier on Mar 9, 2008 with no responses

Slow Squeeze

I have been thinking a lot lately about the impact of $100+ oil prices on the world economy. Like many others, I am trying to work out the probable implications – for the overall economy, for the U.S. economy, for the energy sector, for my personal finances, and for the average person. I believe we have entered an era of permanently higher oil prices, because 1). Supply and demand are in a very tight balance; and 2). OPEC has been very disciplined about keeping a tight reign on supplies. I just don’t see demanding falling enough, nor supply growing enough, to make a major change in the status quo. In the course of doing a little research, I ran across… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jan 17, 2008 with no responses

API Year End Statistics

The API has released their year end report on consumption, and some of the results were quite interesting. They held a blogger call today to discuss the results, but I got tied up and couldn’t make it. If they post a transcript, I will check it out and may excerpt some portions. The summary of the statistical report may be found here, and the press release discussing the report is here. But here is the press release in full: U.S. fuel production at record-high in 2007, demand flat – API WASHINGTON – U.S. fuel production reached a record high in 2007 as refinery capacity expanded for the 11th straight year, API data show. U.S. crude oil production also rose in… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jan 14, 2008 with 3 responses

Debunking Matt Simmons

I don’t suppose this essay is going to make me any new friends, but what’s good for Vinod Khosla is also good for Matt Simmons. A couple of years ago, I took on Vinod Khosla because I felt like he was unduly influencing energy policy in the wrong direction. I pointed out a number of incorrect comments from him that I felt called into question his understanding of the issues upon which he was pontificating. I had no personal animosity toward Mr. Khosla, and in fact we have communicated numerous times over the past couple of years. He has even offered to put me to work in the biofuels industry. So, definitely no hard feelings exist between us. He believes… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jan 12, 2008 with no responses

A New Peak Looms

The bandwagon of those who insist that world oil production has peaked has really filled up in the past six months. Even big names like Matt Simmons threw caution to the wind and declared that May 2005 was the all-time world peak in oil production. His logic (besides two years of flat production data)? If you look at the numbers and you follow what’s going on starting with Mexico’s giant Cantarell field which is now in a very serious state of decline and then you look at the North Sea and you see just the UK and Norway, it’s pretty obvious to me that those three areas alone could actually decline by between 800,000 and 1 million barrels a day… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jan 3, 2008 with no responses

Saudi Aramco Delays Khursaniyah

It never ceases to amaze me just how quickly people can develop amnesia. Take the case with oil production in Saudi Arabia. A year ago, their production was declining. A number of people argued that this was because they were experiencing an irreversible, involuntary, geological decline. My position was always that the evidence looked to me like they were managing their production to keep oil prices high, and that they had spare production. By March of 2007, their production had stopped declining, which was supportive of my theory. After all, if their decline was involuntary, how can we explain that production suddenly flat-lined, and remained steady for the next 10 months? Furthermore, in March I said that I expected Saudi… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Dec 12, 2007 with no responses

Rank the Top 10 Oil Stories of 2007

While I intend to write a post covering the top energy stories of 2007, Platts is asking for reader input on the top oil industry stories of 2007: The top 10 oil industry stories of 2007 A lot of the listed stories would make both lists. I list my Top 10 below that I submitted to Platts. The first few were easy, but I had a hard time picking between the last three or four. My top 10 oil industry stories of 2007: Oil soars, reaches close to $100 for WTI Spare capacity dwindles, supply/demand balance tightens; Peak Oil theory gets more attention Climate change rapidly moves up the list of the world’s concerns; US Senate votes for mandatory GHG… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Nov 26, 2007 with no responses

The OPEC Showdown

It has been clear for some time that OPEC members are deeply split over whether $100 oil is good for them in the long-term. Saudi Arabia, having been in this game a long time, probably understands better than most the effect that high oil prices will have. While short-term gains will be great, ultimately economies will falter and demand for their product will be destroyed. Iran and Venezuela, on the other hand, probably couldn’t care less whether the U.S. economy chokes on these prices. The Financial Times covers the impending showdown: Opec rivals in sequel to oil production drama The Opec summit show is over and the performers have left town. But the preparations for Act Two, the meeting of… Continue»