Consumer Energy Report is now Energy Trends Insider -- Read More »

Posts tagged “investing”

By Robert Rapier on Oct 19, 2007 with no responses

Herding Behavior

The bandwagon on $100 oil filled up very quickly. I thought we were likely to see $100 oil next year, which is why I have consistently said I wouldn’t make that bet on oil prices for 2008. But, if you look back just a couple of months ago, nobody was calling for $100 oil this year. In early August, WTI was hovering in the low $70′s. That’s when you need your financial advisor to step up and say “$100 oil is coming fast.” That would be a gutsy call. Yet it would be a call supported by pretty much the same fundamentals that are in place now (with the exception of Iraq/Turkey). After all, supply and demand projections are pretty… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Oct 2, 2007 with no responses

Time to Sell Oil Stocks?

A CNNMoney article is warning investors that oil, and oil company stocks are overvalued: Beware Big Oil stocks “Nobody in his right mind thinks this oil price is sustainable or justified by market fundamentals,” said Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer. “The higher prices go, the greater the risk for downside potential.” Over the last month the price of U.S. crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange has surged nearly 20 percent, hitting a record high of $83.90 a barrel last week. Yet the AMEX oil and gas index, which tracks both large and small U.S. oil companies as well as refiners and oil service firms, has risen just over 6 percent over the same time. The big… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Sep 25, 2007 with no responses

Ethanol Stocks Hit New Lows

A buying opportunity? Sector Snap: Ethanol stocks hit new lows NEW YORK (AP) – Ethanol stocks fell Tuesday, with several hitting 52-week lows, as a Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) analyst rehashed concerns which promise to plague the industry in coming months. Among stocks hitting their lowest point in a year were US BioEnergy Corp. (NASDAQ:USBE) , which fell 73 cents, or 8.2 percent, to $8.20; Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc. (NYSE:AVR) , which fell 67 cents, or 6.1 percent, to $10.30; Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ:PEIX) , which fell 44 cents, or 4.9 percent, to $8.76; and Verasun Energy Corp. (NYSE:VSE) , which fell 50 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $10.75. Bear Stearns analyst Ann Duignan noted supply and demand concerns facing… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Sep 24, 2007 with no responses

Energy crisis ‘one hurricane away’

Shell’s president says we are just one bad storm away from high and volatile oil prices. I wonder what he considers high and volatile? Shell president: Energy crisis ‘one hurricane away’ in U.S. “We are one hurricane away from energy scarcity and volatile, high prices,” Hofmeister said a day after crude oil prices topped $80 — a record, unadjusted for inflation. “We are so tight on the demand-supply relationship.” Americans for the past half-century have largely enjoyed a lifestyle based on the availability of cheap, abundant energy, Hofmeister said. As demand for energy has grown — the nation today consumes 10,000 barrels of oil per second, he said — its “energy security” has been compromised, he said. “We have seen… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Sep 21, 2007 with no responses

Bill Gates’ Ethanol Losses

About the same time I was warning last year of an ethanol bubble, Bill Gates was sinking money into Pacific Ethanol (PEIX). In the same essay in which I warned of the bubble, I took a look at Pacific Ethanol, and concluded that the underlying fundamentals of the stock – even with the ethanol mandate – were not good. Since that time, Pacific Ethanol has fallen from $22.54 down to today’s value of $9.97. Given that Gates’ purchase price was $16.00 a share – and the stock ran up to ultimately around $40 before collapsing – it looked like a shrewd move for a while. And I lost count of how many people – when arguing with me about ethanol… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jul 18, 2007 with no responses

Jim Jubak Gets Religion, NPC Endorses Peak Lite

Jim Jubak, a popular prognosticator over at MSN’s MoneyCentral, has gotten religion over peak oil: The oil squeeze has just begun “World will face oil crunch in five years.” That’s not exactly the kind of headline you want to read when crude oil is already at $73 a barrel. When things are this bad — crude prices are up 12% in the past two months as of July 12 — you don’t want to hear that they’re going to get worse. Yet that’s exactly what consumers — and investors — should expect, the International Energy Agency said in its latest Medium-Term Oil Market Report, issued July 9. The market for oil will get even tighter over the next five years…. Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Jul 10, 2007 with no responses

When Did Share Repurchases Become a Crime?

Ten years ago, I did a lot of investing into individual stocks. While my investing these days is mostly limited to mutual funds, one thing that always attracted me was when a company bought back shares of their own stocks. To me, this always signaled confidence in the company, and a belief from insiders that the stock would perform well in the near future. While there are some who feel that stock buy backs are what companies do when they don’t have very good investment prospects for their cash on hand, share repurchases always made perfect sense to me. If I were the CEO of a company, and I felt like my company was undervalued, share buy backs are going… Continue»