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Posts tagged “hubbert linearization”

By James Hamilton on Jun 14, 2012 with 4 responses

Modifying Hubbert’s Model of Peak Oil to Account for a Rise in Production Due to Higher Prices

Here I describe some interesting new research on modifying Hubbert’s model of peak oil to take into account the incentives for additional production that higher oil prices would be expected to bring.

A recent IMF Working paper by Jaromir Benes, Marcelle Chauvet, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody begins by noting the trend in forecasts of oil production from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In earlier years, these forecasts were primarily just extrapolations of trends in global demand, with the assumption that supply would grow as needed to meet demand. If EIA’s 2001 forecast had proven accurate, the world today would be producing about 100 million barrels of oil each day. The EIA forecast for 2012 has been revised downward in each successive year, and now stands just under 90.

EIA forecasts of total world oil production (in millions of barrels per day) for 2000-2020 as issued in consecutive years over 2001-2010. Source: Benes, et. al. (2012).

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By Robert Rapier on Jan 3, 2010 with no responses

Reflections on the Saudi Wars

Meet the Doomers It was early 2007, and I was riding high at The Oil Drum. I had written a number of articles on energy policy, and a consistent theme of mine was that biofuels weren’t going to replace our current level of fossil fuel usage.  For the most part these essays were very well-received, until I turned my attention toward the topic of oil production in Saudi Arabia. Realize that while there is a diverse readership at TOD, there are quite a few very vocal contributors who are ‘doomers.’ What exactly is a doomer? Doomers believe that peak oil will inevitably lead to a Malthusian collapse of society. Many cheer for stories that support their idea of doom (e.g.,… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Mar 24, 2007 with no responses

Peak Oil and the Lunatic Fringe

I have been posting at The Oil Drum as a contributor for about a year now. Yesterday, I announced that I would be taking a break for a while. (I will continue to post at least one new essay a week here). As I am getting quite a few e-mails about this, I wanted to document what has precipitated this for those who may not know the history. The Oil Drum receives a great many visitors each day (currently over 12,000 a day). While the vast majority are interested in intelligent discourse on energy issues, there is a very vocal lunatic fringe who accept Peak Oil RIGHT NOW with a religious fervor. They lash out at any viewpoints that challenge… Continue»

By Robert Rapier on Mar 14, 2007 with no responses

When Will Saudi Arabian Oil Production Peak?

The eventual decline of oil production in Saudi Arabia will likely have a profound impact on all of our lives. This event will result in energy shortages around the world, and depleting oil supplies will be bid up to higher and higher levels. Poor countries will no longer be able to compete, and they will be the first casualties of oil depletion. The richer countries will bid against each other for the remaining supplies, and if the depletion rate is high enough we will be in for some very tough times. The Saudis say they have plenty of oil. However, there are a lot of skeptics. So, I am very interested in understanding what’s going on inside Saudi Arabia. One… Continue»