Posts tagged “EIA”
Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). The report presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040 based on six cases, defined as follows:
- Reference — Real gross domestic product (GDP) grows at an average annual rate of 2.4% from 2013 to 2040. North Sea Brent crude oil prices rise to $141/barrel (bbl) (2013 dollars) in 2040.
- Low Economic Growth — Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 1.8% from 2013 to 2040. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case.
- High Economic Growth — Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.9% from 2013 to 2040. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case.
- Low Oil Price — Light, sweet (Brent) crude oil prices remain around $52/bbl (2013 dollars) through 2017, and then rise slowly to $76/bbl in 2040 while OPEC increases its liquids market share from 40% in 2013 to 51% in 2040
- High Oil Price — Brent crude oil prices rise to $252/bbl (2013 dollars) in 2040 while OPEC’s market share declines to 32%.
- High Oil and Gas Resource — Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well is 50% higher and well spacing is 50% closer than in the Reference case. Tight oil resources are added to reflect new plays or the expansion of known tight oil plays, and the EUR for tight and shale wells increases by 1%/year more than the annual increase in the Reference case to reflect additional technology improvements. This case also includes kerogen development; undiscovered resources in the offshore Lower 48 states and Alaska; and coalbed methane and shale gas resources in Canada that are 50% higher than in the Reference case.
Note: I am back in Hawaii after a long road trip, so my posting frequency will return to normal. I intend to record new R-Squared Energy TVs in the near future as well.
In last week’s Energy Trends Insider our featured stories were How to Acquire Accurate Energy Data and Statistics, Investment Opportunities in Indian Energy Infrastructure, and a Subscriber Question on Cheap Natural Gas — A Threat to Chemical and Biofuels Producers. As we have done previously, we would like to share one of those stories with regular readers of this column. Interested readers can find more information on the newsletter and subscribe at Energy Trends Insider.
How to Acquire Accurate Energy Data and Statistics
Making good investment decisions requires access to timely, reliable data. There are a number of good sources of data, each with particular strengths and weaknesses. Here I discuss three that I frequently use. CONTINUE»
Here I describe some interesting new research on modifying Hubbert’s model of peak oil to take into account the incentives for additional production that higher oil prices would be expected to bring.
A recent IMF Working paper by Jaromir Benes, Marcelle Chauvet, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody begins by noting the trend in forecasts of oil production from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In earlier years, these forecasts were primarily just extrapolations of trends in global demand, with the assumption that supply would grow as needed to meet demand. If EIA’s 2001 forecast had proven accurate, the world today would be producing about 100 million barrels of oil each day. The EIA forecast for 2012 has been revised downward in each successive year, and now stands just under 90.
Generation from wind turbines in the United States increased 27% in 2011 from the prior year, and is up 350% since 2006.
“During the past five years capacity additions of wind turbines were the main driver of the growth in wind power output,” the U.S. Department of Energy reported. “As the amount of wind generation increases, electric power system operators have faced challenges with integrating increasing amounts of this intermittent generation source into their systems.”
Book Update I have mentioned it on here a couple of times, but I am under contract to deliver a book on energy by the end of this year. I initially had a pretty good idea of what I wanted to write, but that has evolved a bit as I started writing. So far, I have turned in three chapters to my editor, and I have several others partially complete. The book is going to be broken down into sections of general information (who uses what, who produces what, how it is produced, etc.), controversies (nuclear power, climate change, peak oil, etc.) and then one on possible energy solutions going forward. I am trying to cover stories from an objective… Continue»
Delusional Mandates It is hard to believe that just a few short years ago, Congress mandated a massive increase in usage of cellulosic ethanol. This was remarkable, because no commercial cellulosic ethanol facilities even existed at the time. But people like Vinod Khosla were busy testifying before Congress that the only thing holding the industry back was more funding, and if they would provide the funding we could replace all of our gasoline consumption with cellulosic ethanol. So Congress mandated in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act that we would use 100 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2010, 250 million gallons in 2011, and then rapidly expand to 16 billion gallons per year by 2022. At the time,… Continue»
I saw a humorous story a few days ago: Oil Should Be Around $10 a Barrel The price of a barrel of oil would be closer to $10 if the commodity wasn’t traded as an investment instrument, given the record-high levels of U.S. oil inventories, Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, told CNBC Monday. “I honestly think that if there were no investors using oil as an asset that the price of oil right now would be $10 or $15 or $18, but it wouldn’t be anywhere near where it is,” Beutel said. First off, the cost of production for most producers is significantly higher than that. The easy, cheap oil is gone. That’s why we are drilling a mile… Continue»
Local Production for Local Needs I currently live in Hawaii, and one thing I hope to help facilitate is for Hawaii to become more sustainable in food and energy. We have the natural resources here to be largely sustainable, but we depend on outside sources for around 90% of our food and energy. Currently, fuel and power in Hawaii are provided by Southeast Asia and from as far away as the Middle East. Of course we do this for the same reason many countries are dependent on imports for their food and energy: That is cheaper than the alternative of self-sufficiency. But from the perspective of risk, regions with such high dependence on others for their basic needs can quickly… Continue»
Yesterday I wrote about 90 leading scientists calling on Congress and the Obama administration to carefully account for the greenhouse gas emissions from burning biomass. I want to underscore again that now is the time for Congress to pass a climate bill, and the House ACES bill and Kerry-Lieberman APA provide a solid framework. (You can link here, here and here for more information on the bill’s various provisions,) Today I’m digging into some DOE data that gives a measure of how important it is to get the biomass accounting right and casts some light on how final legislation can ensure the treatment of biomass supports the carbon reduction goals. It’s easier to understand why the biomass loophole is wrong… Continue»
The Energy Information Administration just released their Annual Energy Outlook for 2010: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 It is about 220 pages long, and therefore I haven’t had a chance to read it thoroughly. But in my skimming of it so far, there are a few interesting items to note. One of the things I was most curious about was whether they would show this scary graph that appeared in the 2009 Annual Energy Outlook: Let that sink in for a just a minute. What that says is that global production in 2030 is forecast to be 43 million barrels, demand is forecast to be 105 million barrels, and we really don’t have any idea how we are going to cover… Continue»