R-Squared is moving. Please find me at rrapier.com.
I have been stretched pretty thin lately, or I would have already addressed this. Writing a blog started for me as a hobby in 2005, but it has led me places I couldn’t have imagined. That is because of readers like you who have made this a worthy endeavor over the years. So let me first thank all of you from the bottom of my heart.
There are two updates I need to provide for readers. Please indulge me as I try to give you a behind-the-scenes look that hopefully explains a few things.
I have had many people over the past month tell me that my email address connected to this blog, firstname.lastname@example.org, is bouncing. As a result, I may have missed some important emails. If I didn’t respond to an email, that might be why. Or it could be that I simply haven’t gotten to it yet. CONTINUE»
Over the years, I have often pondered what the world’s ultimate oil production might be before it peaks and inevitably declines. I can recall around 2005-2007 on the website The Oil Drum, that there was a raging debate about just how close the world was to peak oil. Some insisted that it was happening right then. Others, like myself, were in the camp that we still had a few more years and a few more million barrels per day (BPD) of production to go. Those who thought the world would ever reach 100 million BPD were definitely in the minority.
Today I bring you a post from returning guest Todd “Ike” Kiefer who makes an oil production estimate that is far beyond anything I would have personally imagined. He takes on a topic that I have also addressed in the past – the accuracy of some of M. King Hubbert’s estimates. Some will dismiss Kiefer’s estimate out of hand, but I can say from experience that most who dismiss these estimates haven’t done any sort of rigorous estimates to come up with their own estimates. They will just say things like “keep dreaming.” That’s not a very helpful approach. If you disagree with the work, please critique the logic and the numbers.
Previously Mr. Kiefer wrote an article critical of the Navy’s efforts to promote biofuels in a periodical that is sent to Congress and top military leaders. The article was entitled Energy Insecurity: The False Promise of Liquid Biofuels (discussed here). He also wrote guest articles here in the past called EPA’s Sleight of Hand on Cellulosic Fuel Rule Change and A Critical Review of the 2015 Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol. His biography can be found at the end of the article. CONTINUE»
Last week the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) reported that President Trump is preparing to direct the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to make a big change to the country’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The change is one that has been long sought by refiners, but it has been resisted by the country’s biofuel industry. Today I will attempt to explain what it all means.
Briefly, the U.S. has certain biofuel mandates in place. To track compliance, renewable identification numbers (“RINs”) are assigned to biofuels as they pass through the supply chain. Ultimately, those defined as “obligated parties” are required to submit their quota of RINs to the EPA to demonstrate compliance.
Compliance can be met by purchasing the fuel with the associated RIN, or simply purchasing the RINs (which can be separated from the associated biofuel). This means that there is a value for RINs that has the effect of offsetting some of the production cost for the biofuel producer. This system subsidizes biofuels at the expense of both the obligated parties and the final consumer. CONTINUE»
I am currently reading the book The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters. The excess and greed of a few of those profiled is mind-boggling. Of particular note, the late Aubrey McClendon nearly ruined Chesapeake with his excessive spending. But after presiding over a huge decline in Chesapeake shares he got margin calls and his personal shares were sold out from under him. So he turned around and did some self-dealing with Chesapeake that benefited himself enormously financially, at the expense of shareholders.
The greed was excessive, but in his defense he and Chesapeake co-founder Tom Ward (whose self-dealing was also highlighted in the book) did create a multi-billion dollar company from scratch that became one of the leading energy producers in North America. It doesn’t excuse the fact that he did things out of self-interest that weren’t in the best interest of shareholders, but the company itself did provide a lot of energy to consumers.
The same can’t be said of advanced biofuel company Gevo, one of three advanced biofuel companies that went public in 2010-11 with the backing of billionaire venture capitalist Vinod Khosla. CONTINUE»
In an earlier article - Why OPEC’s Announced Cuts Are A Really Big Deal - I addressed some of the skepticism around the recent production cuts enacted by OPEC. Today I want to consider in more depth the notion that U.S. oil producers might swiftly negate the impact of these production cuts.
To review, in November OPEC announced that it would enact 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of production cuts on January 1st. OPEC also announced that certain major non-OPEC members – most notably Russia – would cooperate with the production cuts, pushing the total amount of targeted cuts to 1.8 million bpd.
Some analysts cite two factors that could render OPEC’s cuts ineffective. The first is simply that OPEC members will cheat, as they have historically done. Certainly some members may overproduce their quotas, but OPEC is going to monitor global crude inventories. Those inventories had already begun to come down from record highs prior to the OPEC announcement, partly in response to declining U.S. shale oil production. CONTINUE»
I read an article this morning where one analyst predicted that we are in a 10-15 year bear market for oil. The analyst stated that the market is oversupplied by about a million barrels per day (it isn’t — see the charts in today’s article), that shale oil production will surge this year (it won’t), and that the OPEC agreement to cut production would fall apart (it won’t). His projection was that we will spend 2017 below $50 per barrel (bbl) and in 2018 prices will be back below $40/bbl.
I disagree with this assessment. I believe we will look back in a few years at 2016 as the year the energy sector recovery got underway in earnest. I believe 2017 continues the recovery. Today, I explain how I see the energy markets shaping up this year, in the context of my 2017 predictions.
1. Crude oil will flow through the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) in 2017. CONTINUE»
When I hear a claim that doesn’t sound quite right to me, I usually check in at Snopes to get the facts. They usually do a good job of debunking fake news, and they provide lots of references to back them up.
However, I think they did a huge disservice to readers recently with their fact check on a viral story about Las Vegas.
The story going around was that Las Vegas is now completely powered by renewable energy. The story contains a kernel of truth, but then that kernel got distorted into something that went viral, but was clearly untrue. CONTINUE»
Almost a year ago I made my 2016 energy predictions (see “My 2016 Energy Predictions.”) I have been making annual predictions for nearly a decade now, primarily as a framework for sharing my views on energy markets in the coming year. I try to make predictions that are specific, measurable and actionable. I prefer not to leave anything open to interpretation or spin. With few exceptions, at the end of the year a prediction is right or it is wrong.
I try not to make “no-brainer” predictions. When I make these calls, there is a fair level of uncertainty around them.
Although I had one high-profile miss this year, the others were mostly correct. Here they are, along with commentary on each. CONTINUE»
A lot happened in the energy sector in 2016, with two major stories leading the way. Both the surprising election of Donald Trump to the presidency, and OPEC’s November announcement to curtail production vied for the top spot on my list, as they will both likely impact the energy markets for years to come.
But in 2016 there were also huge wildfires that curtailed oil sands production in Canada, a major new pipeline protest that erupted in North Dakota, high profile bankruptcies in the coal sector, and several important stories on hydraulic fracturing in the U.S.
Here is a list of what I believe were the year’s major energy stories. First the Top 5: CONTINUE»