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By Robert Rapier on Feb 5, 2015 with 6 responses

Oil Prices: Dead Cat Bounce or Have We Passed the Bottom?

When I made my energy predictions for 2015, I made some very aggressive predictions. Perhaps the most aggressive was that the closing price of West Texas Intermediate would not fall below $40/barrel (bbl) in 2015. Why do I consider this a particularly aggressive prediction? Because on the day I made it, the price of WTI closed at $48.80, but in each of the previous three months the price of WTI had dropped at least $10/bbl over the course of the month. So if WTI had maintained the same downward trajectory, it could have easily ended January below $40/bbl. My prediction could have been proven wrong before we even got out of January, so I really stuck my neck out on that one.

It’s not that there is anything special about $40, and I acknowledge that it’s possible that we could overshoot. But I made the prediction to highlight my conviction that $40 oil simply isn’t a sustainable price in today’s world.

A number of respected pundits are projecting that we will go below $40/bbl, with some suggesting that crude could even crash all the way to $30/bbl. Last week on CNBC, respected oil analyst Stephen Schork said “I do think this is a dead cat bounce”, elaborating that at least over the next 2 to 3 months that there is too much oil supply relative to current demand. My point is that it has been a widely held belief that oil is going to fall below $40/bbl, so I am definitely on the wrong side of conventional wisdom on this prediction. That’s not a safe place to be, because when you are wrong in that case people think “Everyone read this correctly except for you.”

But I think conventional wisdom is wrong in this case.  CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Jan 22, 2015 with 71 responses

Why $50 Oil Won’t Last

In the past few weeks I have received numerous questions about the role of a “drop in demand” in the oil price decline. These questions are driven by many stories in the media that have referenced a drop in demand.

There are two primary reasons given for this so-called demand drop. One is that years of high oil prices have resulted in reductions in consumption through conservation and improvements in vehicle fleet efficiency. The second reason is due to the strengthening dollar, oil has become more expensive for many countries since oil is generally traded in dollars.

There are elements of truth behind both reasons. There has indeed been reduced oil consumption in recent years in most developed regions of the world. It is also true that the dollar has strengthened against many currencies. But despite the rationale that explains this drop in oil consumption, ultimately the data must support the narrative. CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Jan 8, 2015 with 10 responses

My 2015 Energy Predictions

Happy New Year to readers around the world! For the past 5 or 6 years, I have begun the year by making predictions for the upcoming year in the energy markets. I am generally happy if I can hit on 60-80% of them. In 2014 I went 5 for 5, but I can say with a fair amount of confidence that this is a feat that’s unlikely to be repeated for 2015.

The reason for this is that I see a lot of uncertainty in the energy markets at this point. There are many changing variables right now, and the direction on several fronts is unclear. And if you look at some of the predictions others have made, that becomes obvious. I have seen predictions of $30 per barrel (bbl) oil and $100/bbl oil, and some suggesting that we would see both extremes. I have also seen people predict that oil production would decline in the U.S. after rising for 6 straight years.

Nevertheless, it’s time to take a stab at 2015. I will offer up my predictions, and explain the reasoning behind them. This year I am going to make 6 predictions. Note that understanding the narrative around the prediction can be more important than the prediction itself, because that can better prepare you for reacting to changing market conditions.  CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Dec 30, 2014 with 28 responses

My Top 10 Energy Stories of 2014

There was an energy story that stood head and shoulders above all the rest in 2014, but no clear runner-up. After the #1 entry on the list below, the rest of the Top 10 is highly debatable. I don’t think there is a consensus #2 story, and I don’t believe there is a well-defined Top 10.

But I do believe there is a clear #1. Here are my choices for the Top 10 energy stories of 2014, followed by about 15 more that could have easily been on the list. Feel free to chime in with any major stories I have missed.

1. Crude oil prices collapse

On July 30, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $104.29 per barrel (bbl). The next day it suffered a sharp decline below $100/bbl. As the year comes to an end, WTI has dropped below $55/bbl. The last time oil was this cheap was during the global financial crisis six years ago. CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Dec 20, 2014 with 11 responses

Five for Five in 2014

As the year expires and the new year arrives, there are several topics I like to cover in a series of articles. One is to review the top energy stories of the year. Another is to grade my predictions for the year. And finally, I lay out my predictions for the upcoming year.

Usually I have a dilemma of whether to grade my predictions first, or to lay out the energy stories first — because I normally do both stories at the end of the year, and something could potentially happen right at the end of the year that might change the narrative. For example, I might do the top energy stories this week, but what if something monumental happens in the next two weeks? The other option is of course to wait until after the first of the year, but then that delays my predictions.

This year, however, there isn’t much of a dilemma on which story to do first. I can grade my 2014 predictions at this point with a high level of confidence. CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Dec 12, 2014 with 6 responses

Reading the Tea Leaves in the Oil Markets

As the year winds down, my next 3 articles or so are fairly predictable. One will be on the top energy stories of the year. As always, I would appreciate any suggestions from readers. Another is that I will grade My 2014 Energy Predictions. (Spoiler alert: I guessed pretty well this year). Finally, I will make predictions for 2015, while providing appropriate context for the predictions. I find the context is more important than the predictions themselves. I can make a prediction on the direction of oil prices, but if you understand the factors likely to drive the price in 2015, you can adjust your expectations accordingly as conditions change.

But this week I would like to post a new interview that I did with Jason Burack of Wall Street for Main Street. I have been asked many times in recent weeks for comments on what’s happening in the oil and gas markets. Here I lay things out as I see them in a wide-ranging 40 minute interview:

CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Dec 4, 2014 with 13 responses

Injection Season is Over

Back in February, I wrote an article called Natural Gas Inventories are Headed Toward Zero. The purpose of the article was to call attention to the fact that natural gas inventories were experiencing the fastest decline in U.S. history, and were approaching dangerously low levels heading into the end of winter. In August I did an update to that article called Why Natural Gas Prices Collapsed. Because natural gas prices rose following that article, and since injection season is now over (see below), let’s once more revisit what happened with natural gas this year.

In prior articles, I explained how the U.S. natural gas inventory system works. The U.S. has 9 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas storage capacity, but according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the actual amount in storage has never exceeded 4 tcf. During the summer season when demand is lower, natural gas inventories will usually build to between 3 and 4 tcf. This build usually starts around mid-April, and then about mid-November as cold weather begins to ratchet up natural gas demand, the withdrawal season begins.

This year injections began during the first week of April. At that time, natural gas inventories were at their lowest level in more than a decade, so that any supply/demand imbalances during injection season could cause natural gas prices to spike. In fact, gas prices did spike several times toward the end of what was the coldest winter in many years. My thesis was that low inventories would affect the natural gas markets in the following ways. Year-over-year natural gas prices were likely to be higher than the previous year because supplies were lower. Natural gas producers would need to produce at high rates to replenish the inventories, and since I believed they would be getting better prices for the natural gas, profits would be up for most producers. This, naturally, would cause the share prices of natural gas producers to rise. CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Nov 20, 2014 with 17 responses

Torrefaction via Radio Waves

During the past five years that I spent in Hawaii, I worked on a number of different projects. The company I worked for invested in energy projects, and our focus was on converting biomass into energy. In my role, I often evaluated companies and technologies to determine the potential technical and economic viability.

I have found over the years that the vast majority of biomass to energy projects aren’t economically viable for one reason or another. I have looked at companies that utilize many different conversion technologies, and most of the time my job consisted of searching for fatal flaws of different approaches. I was the guy who said “No.” That approach saved my employer a lot of money, because none of the companies I said “No” to are thriving today. Most went out of business.

But I didn’t like always being the guy who said “No.” I wanted to put steel in the ground and build something. So I searched for ways to say “Yes”, or at least to turn “No” into “Maybe.” CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Nov 7, 2014 with 11 responses

KiOR in Default on Loan

Update Sunday 9:30 PM PST: KiOR announced Chapter 11 bankruptcy this evening. The press release says that the company has “accepted a bid for substantially all of its assets from certain affiliates of Vinod Khosla” and that they have entered an agreement with one of Vinod Khosla’s organizations for debtor-in-possession (“DIP”) financing. The press release also notes “Common stock investors should note that effective November 6, 2014, the Company has been delisted from trading on the NASDAQ stock exchange and that other creditors have priority over shareholders under the provisions of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company does not anticipate any recovery for existing KiOR common shareholders as part of these proceedings.” KiOR’s bankruptcy this year was Prediction 5 on my my 2014 Energy Predictions made in January.

Update Friday 4:30 PM PST: This afternoon KiOR filed a Form 8-K with the SEC. This form is used to notify investors of important material events. In the report, KiOR indicated that they had received a Notice of Default and Acceleration from the Mississippi Development Authority (MDA) notifying KiOR that all obligations are now due and payable within three (3) business days from November 3, 2014. This default accelerates KiOR’s other loan obligations. In addition to the $78.6 million now payable to the MDA, KiOR says this default “accelerates the Company’s obligations under the following debt agreements:”

  • Loan and Security Agreement, dated January 26, 2012, among the Company and each of 1538731 Alberta Ltd. as agent and lender, 1538716 Alberta Ltd. and KFT Trust, as amended on March 17, 2013, October 21, 2013 and March 31, 2014. As of November 3, 2014, an aggregate amount of approximately $127.8 million is immediately due and payable. As a result of the MDA Notice, the loan accrues an additional four percent (4%) per annum default interest rate.
  • Senior Secured Convertible Promissory Note Purchase Agreement, dated October 18, 2013, among the Company, KiOR Columbus, KV III, KFT Trust and VNK Management, LLC and KV III in its capacity as agent, as amended on October 20, 2013 and on March 31, 2014. As of November 3, 2014, an aggregate amount of approximately $95.7 million is immediately due and payable.
  • Senior Secured Convertible Promissory Note Purchase Agreement, dated March 31, 2014, as amended on July 3, 2014, among the Company, KiOR Columbus and KFT Trust and KFT Trust in its capacity as agent. As of November 3, 2014, an aggregate amount of approximately $10.4 million is immediately due and payable.

So KiOR now owes, immediately due and payable, over $312 million. On the plus side, the 8-K notes “KFT Trust made a Protective Advance to KiOR in the aggregate principal amount of $1,102,691.” That is such a specific amount that I wonder if that might be the bill from the investment bank that has been shopping KiOR during the forbearance period.

My guess is that this now triggers a bankruptcy declaration next week. CONTINUE»

By Robert Rapier on Oct 31, 2014 with 12 responses

Is President Obama Manipulating Gasoline Prices?

Executive Summary for Those with Short Attention Spans

For those who tend not to read much past the headline, the answer to that question is “No.” If you want to understand a bit more about the issue of falling gas prices during election seasons, read on.

The Rotating Roles of Accused and Accuser

It never fails during election season that when gasoline prices are falling, the party out of power and media members sympathetic to that party will start to make accusations and insinuations that the President is manipulating gasoline prices in order to win elections. It happened when Clinton was in office, it happened when Bush was in office, and now it’s happening while Obama is in office. The only things that change are the party that is being charged of manipulating prices, and the people who are defending or accusing that party. This year it’s Fox News doing the accusing, and MSNBC defending. CONTINUE»