New Crude Plus Condensate Peak
Per the latest International Petroleum Monthly (Excel download), world crude plus condensate production for January was 74,466,000 million bpd. The previous record in May 2005 was 74,298,000 bpd. The number is subject to revision, but I have been firm since 2005 that I did not believe that peak would stand. My feeling remains that we could grow another 3-5 million bpd, but that we will not be able to grow any sort of cushion, hence Peak Lite and continued high prices.
If I had to guess – and these are just guesses – I would say 50% probability of peak within 3 years, 70% probability within 5 years, and >90% probability within 10 years.