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By Robert Rapier on Nov 2, 2007 with no responses

Analysts – Correct 52% of the Time!

A sign the oil prices are headed down:

OPEC fears may hike price

Crude oil may rise next week on speculation that OPEC won’t increase production as fast as consumption grows this winter. Twenty-one of 35 analysts surveyed, or 60 per cent, said oil prices will rise through Nov. 9, the first bullish response since July 6.

Is that a mistake? The first bullish response since July 6th? So they were bearish throughout a 30% rise in price, and now become bullish? That’s funny. But this may be even funnier:

Respondents have predicted price drops in the previous 16 weeks. Prices have declined in five of those weeks. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 52 percent of the time since the survey’s introduction in 2004.

Wow! All that analyzing, and correct 52% of the time. I can’t even think of anything funny enough to do that justice.

However, that seems to fly in the face of yesterday’s OPIS report:

11/1 – Crude oil traders moved to take profits this afternoon amid a flurry of forecasts for a steeper downward correction. Analysts this afternoon pointed to a recovering U.S. dollar as a catalyst for more selling.

I guess I will just flip a coin. I know my 50% odds aren’t quite as good as the 52% accuracy rate of the analysts, but my coin flip doesn’t charge me for the prediction.