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By Robert Rapier on Sep 16, 2007 with no responses

Another Peak Lite Endorsement

Hmm. I am going to have to trademark “Peak Lite.” This viewpoint is gathering momentum. First the IEA, then the NPC, now the former chairman of Shell has come out and endorsed this view:

Oil industry ‘sleepwalking into crisis’

Lord Oxburgh, the former chairman of Shell, has issued a stark warning that the price of oil could hit $150 per barrel, with oil production peaking within the next 20 years.

He accused the industry of having its head “in the sand” about the depletion of supplies, and warned: “We may be sleepwalking into a problem which is actually going to be very serious and it may be too late to do anything about it by the time we are fully aware.”

In an interview with The Independent on Sunday ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, Lord Oxburgh, one of the most respected names in the energy industry, said a rapid increase in the price of oil was inevitable as demand continued to outstrip supply. He said: “We can probably go on extracting oil from the ground for a very long time, but it is going to get very expensive indeed.

Commenting on whether “peak oil” – the point when global oil production goes into terminal decline – was likely to be reached in the near future, he said: “In a way it scarcely matters; what really matters is the gap between production and demand. I don’t know whether there is going to be a peak in world oil production, whether it’s going to plateau and then slowly come down.

It is hard for me to envision a scenario in which oil prices aren’t under severe pressure going forward. $150? Sure. Within 20 years? I have no doubt. Within 2 years as some are saying? I have a hard time seeing that, as people will start to respond as prices remain elevated.